Bayesian statistics, health economics and random stuff
I think it’s now official: after a couple of years in which Covid has ruined everything, we’re now returning with our summer school on Bayesian methods in health economics! Of course, so many bad things have happened that this can hardly count as a major problem, but I have really missed the good fun we’ve always had in the week-long course, in Florence.
I’ve made a major refactoring of (the development version of) survHE. I guess one of the main issues with the package (both from the point of view of the user and the maintainer) was that survHE is a big package and installation is a very lengthy process. And this is no surprise: the trade-off here is between the massive savings in computational time that are obtained by pre-compiling the Bayesian models available (through rstan) and the time it takes to get everything installed on your machine… And, from the developer’s point of view, often submission to CRAN has been a pain, because some of the files that get installed are very large and, again because of the nature of the package, there’s quite an intricate structure of “dependencies”, which makes the package very heavy.
This week has been a fantastic one. I went to Cambridge to give the 18th Armitage Lecture; I have to say, when I was invited back in the summer, my first reaction was of course that I was very, very pleased and honoured. Looking at the list of previous Lecturers was pretty daunting, though — which in a way only increased the honour, while also increasing slightly the pressure… 😉
I’ve managed to update my website to the newest version of wowchemy (that’s the engine that, together with blogdown runs the show, behind the scenes). Most changes are really under the hood and, to be fair, you wouldn’t see a lot of what has changed, by simply browsing. I think both wowchemy and the latest release of blogdown, however, make the work easier — it’s actually quite a steep learning curve to get yourself going.
Final time — the model (and bookies) predictions have indeed materialised and Italy face England in the final. I’ve done the final update after the semi-finals and here’s the model prediction. Italy are favourite — I think this is probably right, though I also believe it’ll probably be a slightly closer game. The bookies go the other way and, I think a bit overly-enthusiastically, tip England to be just above Italy (the odds map to probabilities of about 31% for Italy to win, 37% for England to win and 32% for a draw).