(Too) slowly but surely?
After the tragic events in Manchester and the suspension in the campaigns, things have started again and a couple new polls have been released. Some of the media have also picked up the trend I was observing from my model and so I have re-updated the results.
The increasing trend for Labour does see another little surge, as does the decreasing trend for the Tories. In comparison to my last update, the Lib Dem are slightly picking up again. But all in all, the numbers still tell kind of the same story, I guess.
| mean | sd | 2.5% | median | 97.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 369.251 | 5.1765622 | 357 | 370 | 378.000 |
| Labour | 197.886 | 5.2142298 | 190 | 197 | 211.000 |
| UKIP | 0.000 | 0.0000000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Lib Dem | 15.085 | 2.3852598 | 11 | 15 | 19.025 |
| SNP | 49.263 | 2.3965756 | 44 | 49 | 53.000 |
| Green | 0.000 | 0.0000000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| PCY | 0.515 | 0.8499985 | 0 | 0 | 3.000 |
| Other | 0.000 | 0.0000000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
These are the summary results as of today (again after discounting past polls). Lib Dem move from a median number of expected seats of 14 to the current estimate of 15; Labour go from 191 to 197 and the Tories go from 376 to 370, still comfortably in the lead.