Quick update
This is going to be a very short post. I’ve been again following the latest polls and have updated my election forecast model
The dynamic forecast (which considers for each day from 1 to 22 May only the polls available up to that point) show an interesting progression for Labour, who seem to be picking up some more seats. They are still a long way from the Tories, who are slightly declining. Also, the Lib Dems are also going down and the latest results seem to suggest a poor result for Plaid Cymru in Wales too (the model was forecasting up to 4 seats before, where now they are expected to get 0).
The detailed summary as of today is as follows.
mean | sd | 2.5% | median | 97.5% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Conservative | 375.109 | 4.02010949 | 367.000 | 376 | 382 |
Labour | 192.134 | 3.94862452 | 186.000 | 191 | 200 |
UKIP | 0.000 | 0.00000000 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 |
Lib Dem | 14.320 | 2.24781064 | 10.000 | 14 | 18 |
SNP | 50.053 | 2.12713792 | 45.975 | 50 | 53 |
Green | 0.007 | 0.08341438 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 |
PCY | 0.377 | 0.77036645 | 0.000 | 0 | 3 |
Other | 0.000 | 0.00000000 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 |
I think the trend seems genuine
I’ve also played around with the issue of coalitions
The Progressive come much closer and the probability of an outright Tory majority is now much smaller, but still…