This is now borderline very old, although sadly not out of trend… In May/early June, Marta, Michela, Monica and I, together with colleagues at the Italian Statistical Institute, have worked on a paper to model the excess mortality due to COVID-19, in Italy.
I think this is something that lots of people have done/tried to do — not that we’ve done it better necessarily; but I think it’s important and interesting to realise that there is no such as thing as the “true” excess mortality (due to anything, for that matter).